DoW 73: The Nose Knows

“Burn baby burn!”

Noizy of Nosy Gamer joins us for an interview and lends his expertise to our discussions

Poll Results: Have you voted for CSM? (Also, two of our listeners are scientifically wrong)

EVE News: World of Darkness scrapped by CCP to the tune of $21m in losses, HERO Co captures HED-GP, Burn Jita begins (spoiler for next cast: we had two contracts for this, one employer is Gevlon Goblin, and Goblin has announced he’s refusing to pay. Get your popcorn ready!)

Contract Wrap Up: Hazing CFC controlled North West Null Sec

This Week In Mercs: Suddenly Spaceships shifts gears to WH space

CSM Corner: CCP reveals parts of the upcoming Industry revamp and the cast discusses the consequences

-Noizy reveals himself to be a lowsec miner. Alek listens to his first hand experience being a unicorn with great interest

-Probably our best ending song EVER, custom mixed by NinjaTurtle #capitalism #BurnJita #trollterrorism

15 thoughts on “DoW 73: The Nose Knows

  1. I’m warning each and every one of you to cease and desist with those soundboards. I am taking the necessary steps to take punitive damages OUT OF YOUR ASS!

  2. Imagine for a moment that you own 3 cars. One runs great, and the other 2 don’t run at all. What is the logical course of action?

    A: Fix the 2 broken cars

    B: Beat the shit out of the working car and declare success since all 3 cars now run at an equal level

    CCP has chosen the option B route for their industry revamp. All they had to do was declare that high sec was the baseline for how they wanted industry to operate, and then buff low sec and null sec accordingly.

    After the summer expansion, it will be impossible for high sec industry to be profitable. You won’t be able to compete with the 20% mineral advantage the null sec guys get, you won’t be able to compete with their build costs, and you won’t be able to compete with their logistics.

    This places me in the untenable position of either abandoning industry entirely or becoming a renter (which means giving my profit directly to my competitors). Quite frankly, if I wanted to live in null sec, I would be there already.

    • “All they had to do was declare that high sec was the baseline for how they wanted industry to operate, and then buff low sec and null sec accordingly.”

      I’d agree with that if highsec wasn’t such an insanely high baseline. You can’t buff perfect. The problem with setting current highsec capacity as the baseline and then buffing build/refine in low and null is that you start to have numbers that break the laws of physics (ie 120% refine) or economics (free builds).

      The market will adjust and I assure you any serious highsec industrialist will still be able to make money hand over fist. Most null production will be local, especially big items (Battleships). There will be some items which might be worth it for 0.0 guys to build and jump but they will not be able to keep up with demand for those items in all the major hubs (looking at you Damage Control II).

      This places you in the very tenable position of having to change the numbers in your spreadsheet, possibly build different items depending on what the market is doing, and possibly relocate your production HQ one or two jumps to the left.

      Nothing is stopping you or anyone else from continuing to do industry in highsec. No one is forcing you or anyone else to nullsec, either as a renter or otherwise.

      • “Nothing is stopping you or anyone else from continuing to do industry in highsec.”

        The entire concept of industry hinges upon the idea that the cost of making a thing is less than the price you can sell it for. After this expansion, the cost of making a thing will be higher than the price you can sell it for. The idea of losing money with every sale is not nothing. Common sense is not nothing.

        “The problem with setting current highsec capacity as the baseline and then buffing build/refine in low and null is that you start to have numbers that break the laws of physics (ie 120% refine) or economics (free builds). ”

        They took a step in the right direction with the upcoming changes to refining skills. I agree that it was bad design to have perfect refines for all ores without having the skill to refine that ore maxed out. I also agree that mineral compression needed to change.

        But now CCP is reducing the amount of minerals that enter the market in high sec while at the same time adding more minerals into null sec by way of refine yields. This alone is enough to make high sec industry not profitable, but CCP didn’t stop there.

        With a system as complex as an economy, changing too many things at once is a recipe for disaster. What they needed to do was change the manufacturing interface to be able to handle batch jobs (the number 1 thing asked for by industrialists!), and then increase the amount of manufacturing and research slots in low sec and null. Once CCP saw how that shook out, they could iterate on it from there. Perhaps by giving each swathe of space a specialty, like high sec being for modules, low sec being for capitals, null sec being for supercapitals, and each area getting a unique bonus for subcap and ammo production. That way, the industry changes that need to happen are rolled out in a controlled manner. And there would be compelling reasons to make things in all areas of space, instead of the current design of “Make it so only morons would consider making things in high sec”.

    • You need to wait for all 6 dev blogs to be up to see the full changes of the industry processes. To answer you, Yes, you need to do all this changes as a One Time Package, as each part is not balanced as itself (and we can hope the whole will be).

      Industry needs to be changed and more balanced for all play styles, while currently, most of the industry gameplay is high-sec based. This is a problem of risk vs reward: nobody complains that PI is not as good in HS than in low or null: people made choices and adapted… so why would other industrial activities not be less profitable in HS? HS is currently way too profitable and risk-free. That is a bad combination and balance that requires remediation to promote gameplay.

      After all those changes happen, part of HS industry will switch (full sectors?) to low or null, but I seriously doubt that HS industry will be in such a dire shape as you claim. It is going to be a new balance and you will perhaps to switch or adapt what you do (but you should have diversified anyway). You will have months (year?) to adapt, with all the stocks currently in the market hubs, so you will ample time to transition and find your new niches. Don’t forget to rack-up huge profits on the market during the re-balancing period 🙂

      I am more worried about lowsec industry (WH has its niche) as it is the strange step-child in EvE. But I will wait and see for all posts and the new balance before forming a definitive opinion on the expansion.

      Anyway, making industry less of a clickfest activity will improve tremendously the game for every single industrialist, freeing gametime for more interesting things: this is a huge bonus for all industrialists, adding/keeping more crafters than those changes will make ragequit.

      p.s.: to answer in advance, no, I am not a nullsec industrialist and I have no relation to any null entity (unless getting hotdropped by PL & Goons counts). I am a carebear that moved most of its industry activities in FW lowsec in the last 18 months, to increase profit. Perhaps this extension will make me move to null, but only time will tell (and I kinda like my pirate neighbors).

      question: any idea what Legend will be ? (CCP placed a TM last week on this name) Is it the name of the summer/winter expansion ? I am sure bloggers know how long before features CCP places a TM, and this could provide some uninformed gossip.

      • “so why would other industrial activities not be less profitable in HS? HS is currently way too profitable and risk-free.”

        People keep making the argument that high sec needs to be the worst place in the game to make isk. And here’s the secret: it already is for most things. Do the things you can do in null sec in a .5 system for a day. Run sites, rat in belts, mine, etc. Your isk per hour will be a fraction of a percentage of what you would be making in null. I don’t disagree that industry is due for a revamp, but gutting high sec industry is the wrong way to go about it. You don’t have to nerf high sec to make low sec and null better.

        • Highsec Incursion ISK/hour is the *best* in the game, highsec lvl 4s are competitive with nullsec ratting income with exponentially less ship loss, mining income is lower theoretical isk/hour but you’re actually able to mine all the time you want rather than be constantly interrupted by hunters.

          I don’t know where you’re getting a “fraction of a %” from but as a CEO who gets to look at the tax ticks, it’s just not the case.

          Trading, invention, and production are entire professions which barely exist in null/low but thrive in highsec and can be quite lucrative.

          • “Highsec Incursion ISK/hour is the *best* in the game”

            I don’t yet have enough SP on my main to run incursions, so I don’t have any experience here. I am prepared to defer to your superior knowledge of incursions. My impression of incursions is that they are incredibly good isk/hour, but you have to spend a lot of time traveling between constellations in order to run them, you have to compete with other incursion groups (of which there are many) to get a payout, and a group can prematurely end an incursion for everyone. I’d wager that once you factor in travel time, incursion down time, and the time it takes to form fleets, incursions aren’t better isk per hour than ratting in null. Comparable maybe, but not better.

            “highsec lvl 4s are competitive with nullsec ratting”

            Now this is something I know about. Unless you are blitzing l4 SoE missions, the isk per hour is substantially lower than nullsec ratting. And if you are running SoE missions, gankers abound and it still is less isk per hour than nullsec ratting. The only missions that compete with nullsec ratting isk-wise are pirate faction missions and FW missions, and none of those are in high sec.

            “mining income is lower theoretical isk/hour but you’re actually able to mine all the time you want rather than be constantly interrupted by hunters.”

            The best ore you can mine in high sec belts is kernite, and only in very limited quantities. The best you can do mining in high sec is about 15mil isk/hour per character. You can make far more isk than that in low sec and null, if you are willing to take the risk and get the ore. It sounds like what you are saying is that it is too risky to mine in low sec and null, which means the risk/reward ratio is out of balance in low sec and null. That has nothing to do with high sec. It speaks directly to the risk/reward of low sec and null not being tuned properly.

            “Trading, invention, and production are entire professions which barely exist in null/low but thrive in highsec and can be quite lucrative.”

            And I put it to you that it is possible to change the mechanics of low sec and null to allow for production and invention without also nerfing production and invention in high sec. Trading is definitely worth talking about, but only after the issue of making things gets settled.

            “I don’t know where you’re getting a “fraction of a %” from but as a CEO who gets to look at the tax ticks, it’s just not the case. ”

            I will admit to being a tad hyperbolic with that statement. However, it would take 3 or 4 people running l4 missions in high sec to match the tax tick you would get from one null sec ratter. It would take tens of people ratting in a 0.5 systems to match the tax ticks of 1 null sec ratter. I am not sure how that would look for incursions; I’d imagine that the ticks would be bigger, but fewer in number and less frequent.

          • Re Incursions: Nope, definitely better. When Noir. is between contracts we have a limited time to make the most isk possible, Incursions are the way. Vanguard ticks (not even the best incursions) are 2-3x the size of 0.0 ratting and tend to come every 5-7 minutes as opposed to once every 15 minutes. There is rarely “downtime” for HS incursions and while there is some competition it’s never been a problem.

            Re mining: yeah 0.0 and null are strictly better from a raw isk/hour, but as you mentioned RISK. Even then, casual mining is difficult under those conditions compared to empire, where one lone miner can go and make 15m while reading a book. In dangerous space you cant afk, you need scouts, and you need a way to get your minerals to a distant market for sale.

            And I say all that while pointing out that null ores recently had a much needed buff because it was nearly impossible to get the Trit and Pyrite needed for even basic production by mining it out there. Miners mined the max isk/hour high ends and everything else had to be hauled in from Jita (if they didnt just buy the final product)

            Re ratting/missions: you can say running lvl4s is less but that doesn’t make it true. If you’re very good, you might be able to make slightly better raw isk/hour than a lvl4 HS runner for Fed Navy but factor in the mission runner also gets Loyalty Points (which can’t be taxed) and ratting anoms is just outclassed for the average player. Even if it weren’t better ISK/hour, which as I said it effectively is factoring in LP, that is a far cry from “3 or 4” missioners as you believe.

            If you think suicide ganking is a problem, imagine having to deal with this http://noirmercs.com/killboard/?a=kill_detail&kll_id=48096 not once in a while, but every day frequently several times a day. We killed 4 people like that in 2h; another fleet made a successful pass through the same area just an hour before, killing a 1.5b+ ratting Tengu.

            This is not rare.

            As for the rest of the professions, you “put it to me” but didn’t mention how.

  3. @Gevlon Goblin
    ‘ I’d like to stress that when I approached Aleks, he didn’t say “sorry, we are already booked for Burn Jita weekend, find someone else”, but made the fake negotiation over Catalyst bounties, making me believe that they work for me. So Noir didn’t only take a one-time lucrative contract from Goons. Goons paid enough that worth not only burning every bridge towards me’

  4. Now that the 7 blogs are out, we can finally get our head around the full new landscape (see Lockefox blog for example), start crunching some numbers, to be able to find out a (I hope short) list of issues that is linked to the changes.

    From what I can say:
    1) there is a problem for PoS (and null stations) and how they are counted for lines, especially for production arrays that are specialized and named laboratories
    2) Null sec system are going to have a big problem if several industrialists stack at the same location (with one station and even with many PoS) as the slot costs are going to explode faster than infrastructure can follow
    3) We can expect a new gameplay of null nomadic manufacturers in areas with crap moons, switching systems every 3-4 weeks to drop their production PoS in a 0 activity system. They will have a central fixed heavily fortified PoS for refining and materials storage, then a wandering nimble PoS for manufacturing at rock bottom costs
    4) Lowsec is getting the short stick, even if FW lowsec will fare much better, thanks to their personal variable multiplier (and the no activity multiplier that will make all costs rock bottom)
    5) Highsec manufacturing will have a disadvantage in base minerals (refining), a slight disadvantage in slot costs (depending of system, it can be false) but a huge advantage on market and materials
    6) Null is still going to be heavily dependent on HS for most, but Capital Production is going to be cheaper (second blow to LS that loses that production market)
    7) WH is not going to be affected too much
    8) Manufacturers with highly researched BPO are losing a good part of their advantage (ME>10 becomes useless), but CCP is working on some compensation for this
    9) the T2/T3 production is going to be more expensive, each step (copy/invention/production) growing in price, but that just means more expensive for the end customer (and more money for traders during transition)
    10) the mission runners will not salvage or gather loots anymore, with scrap metal changes. We’re surely back to mission blitzing, and this will affect many markets.
    11) CCP expects a large drop in the number of PoS in activity, at least in the beginning, which would indicate a better fare for HS station industrialist that we could hope
    12) the BPO will be much more in danger in null, as PoS cannot use them remotely anymore; this is a serious danger for Capital Production while providing a ISK sink via BPC production in safe locations (surely a large PoS in static C1 WH or LS/HS station)
    13) some subjects will not be part of the summer expansion, pushed to point releases later on (e.g. having skills affect the perfect skill refining array for PoS)

    In summary, the biggest problem will be to evaluate exactly how much the item produced has cost the industrialist. With all costs fluctuating every day, this is going to be a nightmare to know the bottom cost… so buyer will be shafted more, as he will end up paying the Conservative Estimate. CPP has promised examples and numbers after Fanfest, so we’ll see the reality and sharpen our pencils.

    Additionally, it is going to break a lot of tools and scripts that have been developed, so we’ll be back 10 years ago (without any clear idea of the game) for a few months… my server and boards are ready 🙂

    In any case, there are major advantages to the new system:
    1) way less click-fest interface as any new job will (by default) take the same parameters as the last job (so much faster queuing time) and all fields are pre-selected to the same location as the Item/BPO/BPC
    2) as there are no more queues, you can drop all your 10(11) jobs at once, and they will all finish at the same time… no more connecting several times a day for 1-2 jobs that just finished, the completion date spreading all over the calendar (so less time lost)
    3) Time Efficiency becomes more useful
    4) Interface and subject is less complex for new players, while still providing depth for groups and min/maxers
    5) Ore Compression becomes a market, not using the weird item compression, and logistics will have to adapt much after figuring the new items and volume needs
    6) CCP is removing a lot of idiosyncrasies in the items manufactured, production times, research times, runs, etc… it should clean up weird items

    So overall a good goal, good ideas (and CCP is listening to the forum feedback), even if many small issues still need to be ironed out before full release.

    And no, HS industry is not dead, by far, even if it will be surely less dominant.

    • I do not like the Team Blog… it is not at all about Teams and playing cooperatively: it is just about one more sink to get temporary boosts on the market.

      In all aspects of the game (PvP, FW, Trade, Exploration, Logistics, Mining…) but Industry, there is a clear advantage to play in group… and the Industry Blog on Teams did not bring that aspect to the last solo-play of the EvE MMO.

      Increase in cost to manufacturing when players gather around a location already pushes industrialists to find remove solo desert places where they can drop their costs (at the expense of logistical risk). Playing as a group of related industrialists should have a positive effect, like for miners or traders.

      This is not the CCP way of thinking and this is very disappointing.

      Having Leadership bonuses to approved colleagues in the system/sector would have been one option.
      Reductions/Bonuses stacking between approved colleagues would be another way of promoting industrialists associations (even if it is just a speed bonus or a share/bonus of skills).
      Another example could be for the corp to be able to get speed boost on production/cost for industrialists with empty queues (while they are empty).
      Or it could be several industrialists working on the same job to reduce the time to manufacture (with the same stacking penalties as modules)… this would seriously boost Capital Production while limiting some risks (by reducing the window of opportunity for issues).
      Those could be limited to a corp, with new Corp Roles providing those synergies.

      There were a lot a great ideas floating around when the devblog was only a name in the list… but the end result has been disappointing (for this part).

      Now we are waiting for CCP to provide real numbers to crunch, after Fanfest, to judge the other blogs and try to anticipate what will happen (and where the new balance will be).

      Having everything in Null destructible is a huge change for Null, and a risk for all industrialists… and this will affect seriously the Blue Donut of Death and the future industrial balance.

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